S&P 500 Seasonality Analysis: Mid-March Rally Predicted by Benjamin Cowen
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In this riveting analysis by Benjamin Cowen, we delve into the intricate world of the S&P 500's seasonality. Cowen paints a picture of a potential counter Trend rally looming on the horizon, likely to shake things up by mid-March. Drawing parallels with postelection years, he unveils a pattern where the market typically struggles until the end of March, setting the stage for a possible turnaround. By dissecting historical data and past market drops, Cowen skillfully guides us through the turbulent waters of market trends and forecasts.
With a keen eye for detail, Cowen highlights key lows around March Opex, hinting at an imminent retest of the bull market support band. Reflecting on previous bear markets in February and March, he draws parallels between the current downtrend and past market behaviors. Despite the market's 10% drop thus far, Cowen issues a cautionary note, suggesting the potential for further weakness in the coming weeks. His astute observations from historical events in 2008 and 2000 lead him to anticipate a possible counter Trend rally by early to mid-April, keeping viewers on the edge of their seats.
Emphasizing the unpredictable nature of the market, Cowen underscores the common theme of Q1 weakness and subsequent springtime resurgence throughout history. While acknowledging the severity of the current market conditions compared to previous years, he remains optimistic about a local low materializing around March Opex, paving the way for a much-anticipated rally. Amidst the backdrop of tariff discussions, Cowen predicts a temporary lull that could spark a market upswing as the season transitions to spring. As viewers hang on every word, Cowen's advice to exercise patience during this challenging seasonality period resonates, hinting at a potential market shift post-March Opex for a thrilling counter Trend rally.
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