Navigating the Potential US Recession: Insights from Lark Davis
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Is a recession for the USA overdue? Lark Davis delves into this burning question with his signature analytical flair. The National Bureau of Economic Research, or Nur, serves as the gatekeeper for officially declaring recessions, typically occurring every 5-6 years. Despite Nur's exclusion of 2022 from recession counts, many argue that the impact of that year's economic downturn has been merely delayed, causing a ripple effect. By examining macroeconomic indicators such as the housing market and unemployment rates, Davis paints a vivid picture of the current economic landscape, rife with conflicting signals and potential pitfalls.
The housing market emerges as a crucial barometer, showing a decline in existing home sales and consumer housing sentiment. Unemployment numbers, while slightly up, reveal a 4.1% rate and a decrease in the number of employed individuals, sparking concerns about the labor market's stability. The inversion of the yield curve in February 2025, a favorite recession indicator, further muddies the waters, potentially heralding an economic downturn within the next 6-24 months. Consumer spending takes a hit in January 2025, coupled with a drop in consumer sentiment, signaling potential economic turbulence on the horizon.
Amidst increasing bearishness in the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey and dire predictions from financial giants like JP Morgan and Fidelity, the specter of a recession looms large. The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast paints a grim picture of negative growth trends, hinting at stormy weather ahead. Despite some glimmers of positivity, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and dropping oil prices, the overarching message remains clear: caution and preparation are paramount in navigating the choppy waters of the impending economic storm.
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